Recent assessments from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute indicate a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict with Iran. According to these reports, a combined US-Israeli force appears to be increasingly directing its operations towards Iran's internal security apparatus. This strategic shift aligns with the publicly stated objective of both the United States and Israel to bring about a change in the Iranian regime. In response to these intensifying pressures, the Iranian leadership has reportedly established a temporary council to assume the responsibilities typically held by the supreme leader, signaling a potential internal restructuring or contingency planning amidst the conflict. Furthermore, there are indications that Iran may have initiated attacks on maritime traffic in the critical Strait of Hormuz, a move that could significantly broaden the scope and economic impact of the hostilities, as sources suggest Iran aims to impose substantial costs on its adversaries to compel a ceasefire.
The current phase of the conflict, as detailed by ISW and CTP, represents a critical juncture, building upon a period of sustained regional tensions and military engagements. The daily updates provided by these research bodies underscore the dynamic nature of the 'war with Iran,' with morning briefings specifically tracking US and Israeli offensive actions and the retaliatory measures from Iran and its allied 'Axis of Resistance.' The explicit focus on Iran's internal security infrastructure by the combined US-Israeli forces marks a strategic evolution, moving beyond purely military targets to potentially destabilize the regime from within. This approach is consistent with the long-term stated goals of both nations regarding the future of Iranian governance. The formation of a temporary leadership council within Iran, comprising key figures such as the president, the judiciary chief, and a prominent hardline cleric, suggests a proactive measure by the regime to maintain continuity and control in the face of external pressure, drawing parallels to historical precedents where leadership transitions or contingencies have been planned during periods of intense geopolitical strain.
Further details from the ISW and CTP reports outline a methodical approach by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to achieve air superiority, a crucial precursor for broader operational success. The IDF has reportedly articulated a three-phase strategy designed to establish dominance over the airspace of western and central Iran, a tactic that, according to the analysis, mirrors successful operations undertaken by Israel in June 2025. This systematic plan is intended to create the necessary conditions for the combined US-Israeli forces to achieve their overarching objectives within the conflict zone. Concurrently, the Iranian regime's potential pivot to targeting maritime traffic around the Strait of Hormuz represents a significant development. Sources suggest this action is a calculated effort by Tehran to inflict economic pain on the United States and its partners, with the explicit aim of forcing them to pursue a ceasefire agreement before any potential toppling of the current regime. Throughout this period, Iran has also sustained its campaign of missile and drone strikes across the broader region, with these attacks reportedly impacting civilian locations in areas around the Gulf and within Israel, underscoring the widespread and indiscriminate nature of some of the ongoing hostilities.
The escalating targeting of Iran's internal security apparatus by US-Israeli forces carries significant implications for the stability of the Iranian regime and the broader regional power balance. Expert perspectives suggest that such actions aim to degrade the regime's capacity for internal control and potentially incite dissent, thereby accelerating the stated objective of regime change. The establishment of a temporary leadership council by Iran, while presented as a contingency, could also signal internal vulnerabilities or a pre-emptive measure against potential succession crises, reflecting the immense pressure the regime is currently under. The reported initiation of maritime attacks in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran signifies a potential shift in strategy, leveraging its geographical advantage to impose economic costs on global trade and energy markets. This move could be interpreted as an attempt to internationalize the conflict's impact, forcing a wider array of international actors to engage in de-escalation efforts. The IDF's phased approach to air superiority, mirroring past successful campaigns, indicates a deliberate, long-term strategy rather than a reactive response, suggesting a sustained commitment to achieving its military objectives in the region.
In summary, the conflict with Iran is entering a phase of heightened intensity and strategic complexity, as detailed by the Institute for the Study of War and the Critical Threats Project. The combined US-Israeli forces are demonstrably focusing on dismantling Iran's internal security structures, aligning with their stated goal of regime change, while the Iranian leadership responds with contingency planning and potentially escalatory actions in vital maritime choke points. The coming period will likely be defined by the effectiveness of the IDF's phased air superiority plan, the resilience of Iran's internal governance under pressure, and the international community's response to potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Observers will be closely watching for further developments in Iranian maritime activity, the impact of sustained missile and drone strikes on regional stability, and any indications of a shift in the internal power dynamics within Iran as the conflict continues to unfold.